AGP Executive Report

Horn of Africa Tensions: Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of sending troops across its border and urged the UN to intervene, raising fears of renewed war. India’s foreign minister also met Ethiopian officials to discuss trade, security and technology ties. Regional Security: AFRICOM warns that Yemen’s Houthis may be seeking a foothold in Somalia alongside al-Shabaab, potentially threatening shipping in the Gulf of Aden and U.S. forces in East Africa. Deportation Rights: The U.S. says it is working to return an Egyptian man deported to Equatorial Guinea after a judge ruled his removal unlawful; rights groups say third-country deportations are putting migrants at risk across Africa. Economic Recovery: Nigeria’s foreign reserves have climbed to $46 billion from below $1 billion at their lowest point, while inflation has eased, offering lessons for Kenya and other economies seeking investor confidence. Food and Climate: Despite insurgent control of parts of Lake Chad, fishers and traders keep food moving for communities across Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger and Chad. In Abuja, the AfriGEO symposium opened with a focus on Earth observation and climate resilience.

Horn of Africa Tensions: Reports that Eritrean troops have entered Tigray and were targeted by Ethiopian drones have raised fears of renewed war, as Addis Ababa demands foreign forces leave. Niger’s Security Crisis: A failed coup attempt, reportedly sparked by unrest among special forces, has exposed deep divisions in the military as jihadist threats persist. US Deportations: Human rights groups say deporting migrants to African countries they are not from violates international law, as the network draws growing scrutiny. Nigeria’s 2027 Elections: INEC says parties cannot field or replace candidates whose names were missing from their submitted registers when the deadline closed. Climate and Food Security: Kenya is preparing flood defences and exploring purchases of farmers’ unsold rice ahead of El Niño rains; forecasters also warn southern Africa faces heightened drought risk. Regional Opportunity: Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio and investor Tony Elumelu are urging West African businesses to turn regional integration into investment, industry and jobs. Refugee Livelihoods: UNHCR and ASKY airline have launched a three-year partnership to expand skills, employment and business opportunities for refugees in six West and Central African countries.

Horn of Africa: Reports of Eritrean troops crossing into Ethiopia’s Tigray region have raised fears of renewed conflict, as Ethiopian forces move against rebels and both governments trade accusations. West Africa: Guinea-Bissau’s December election is set to be delayed, with no new date announced, deepening uncertainty after last year’s coup. Health & Security: Kenya is tracing contacts and placing people in quarantine after its first confirmed Ebola case; in Nigeria, troops repelled an ISWAP assault on a Borno base, with reports of soldiers and more than 25 militants killed. Business & Energy: Dangote’s $1.6 billion refinery IPO is opening to East African investors, while Nigeria’s government has outlined measures to ease rising petrol prices. Sport: Rwanda is reported to have secured an F1 Grand Prix, potentially bringing the championship back to Africa after decades, though a formal announcement is pending. Environment: WWF says monitored wildlife populations have fallen sharply since 1970, while warning that conservation efforts offer grounds for hope.

Ebola Alert: Kenya is tracing contacts and tightening health checks after a traveller from the DRC died of Ebola in Nairobi, raising concern about further cross-border spread. Officials say the case is isolated. Nigeria Security: The army says it repelled an ISWAP assault on a Borno base, killing more than 25 militants; soldiers also died in the fighting. Economic Outlook: The World Bank sees sub-Saharan Africa’s growth rising to 4.3% in 2026, but warns that Middle East conflict could push up fuel costs and strain economies such as Kenya’s. Regional Investment: Dangote Refinery has opened nearly $300 million of its IPO to East African investors, with Kenya and Uganda approving participation. Wildlife: WWF reports monitored populations in Africa fell 80% between 1970 and 2022, even as conservation successes show recovery is possible. South Africa Tensions: The US consulate warned staff to avoid Durban’s CBD after looting and violence targeting foreign nationals.

Ebola Alert: Kenya has confirmed its first Ebola case, and the patient, who returned from the DRC, has died. Authorities are increasing airport screening amid concerns about cross-border spread and trade. Regional Security: Reports of Eritrean troops moving south in Tigray and fresh fighting near Mekelle have raised fears of a wider confrontation. In Nigeria’s Borno State, troops say they killed more than 25 ISWAP fighters while repelling an attack; soldiers were also killed. West African Cooperation: ECOWAS is meeting in Banjul to strengthen border management, while a training programme in Monrovia aims to improve regional statistics and policymaking. Trade and Energy: Benin’s Cotonou port says container pickups take 36–72 hours, offering an alternative to congested West African hubs. A planned Zambia–DRC power line could supply up to 550MW to the DRC’s mining belt. African Enterprise: Nigeria’s HubPharm Africa won ECOWAS’s startup prize; the programme drew about 9,000 entries and offers finalists access to investment opportunities.

Libya Politics: Libya’s eastern House of Representatives has elected a new speaker, ending Aguila Saleh’s 12-year tenure as lawmakers cite leadership errors and growing discontent. South Sudan Borders: A Juba commissioner denied ordering Kenyans and other foreigners to leave within seven days, saying foreigners are welcome if they avoid retail trading. Counterterror Court Case: In Nigeria, a woman pleaded guilty to supporting ISWAP by helping keep arms and ammunition, with the case heard in Abuja. ECOWAS Integration: Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye urged ECOWAS Parliament to stay central to citizen-focused integration, not just government-led talks. Elections Funding: Nigerian civil groups backed INEC’s demand for the prompt release of remaining 2027 election funds to protect credibility. Trade & Ports: DP World secured a 10-year extension for Luanda’s port terminal to 2051, with a $90m expansion plan. Health: MSF warns DRC’s Ebola outbreak is still far from over as mistrust and weak systems slow containment. Climate & Shipping: Maersk cautioned Super El Niño-linked flooding could disrupt East Africa port access and inland routes. Education & Social Security: An ISSA seminar in Doha focused on digital and management innovations to improve social security access and delivery.

Ebola in East Africa: Kenya has confirmed its first-ever Ebola death after a Kenyan man who had been living in DR Congo died in Nairobi, triggering contact tracing and isolation of dozens of contacts and passengers. Regional Justice: ECOWAS Court of Justice swore in five new judges, as the regional legal system pushes on with rights and integration cases. Energy & Investment: Orb Energy secured $2m from KawiSafi Ventures to expand commercial and industrial solar across East Africa, while Algeria’s APPO president highlighted Algerian hydrocarbons expertise as a bridge for African energy cooperation. Public Health & Safety: A UN report warns that medicine trafficking in Central Africa is a major public health threat, with hundreds of tonnes seized across CEMAC states from 2020-2025. Digital Finance: Airtel Money plans a virtual card in Kenya to enable international online payments from mobile wallets, aiming to challenge M-Pesa GlobalPay. Governance & Economy: Malawi’s central bank urged stronger regional rules for non-bank finance to protect savers and unlock growth.

Aviation & Trade: Saudia’s low-cost arm flyadeal launches non-stop Riyadh–Mumbai service, adding 7,400 seats monthly and betting big on India’s travel boom. Education: Ekiti State in Nigeria rewards top teachers and administrators with N70.5m in cash prizes for Teacher’s Day. Capital Markets: Kenya’s Capital Markets Authority clears a short-form prospectus letting eligible investors buy Dangote refinery IPO exposure via GDRs on the Nairobi bourse. Security: Nigeria’s security forces say they killed a senior ISWAP leader in Ondo during a joint operation involving DSS, the army and Amotekun. Energy & Investment: TotalEnergies outlines major Africa bets across Mozambique LNG, Namibia’s Orange Basin and Uganda’s oil push, stressing local jobs and skills. Health & Rights: Human Rights Watch warns Tunisia’s power and water shortages during extreme heat violated rights to health, hitting hospitals and detainees. Agriculture & Climate: South Africa faces rising food risk as El Niño-linked drought pressure meets new threats, while ransomware fears grow as farming digitises. Politics: Ethiopia formally installs Abiy Ahmed for a new term after parliamentary approval.

Energy & Industry: Ghana’s COCOBOD lifted the 2026/27 cocoa producer price by 2.4% to GH¢42,400/tonne, nudging global prices higher and raising fears of cross-border cocoa shifts amid El Niño-linked weather risk. Security: Nigeria’s joint forces (Army, DSS and Amotekun) killed a senior ISWAP commander, Abdussamad Ohida, targeting a planned wave of attacks ahead of festive season and 2027 polls. Disaster Watch: On the Congo River, two boats collided, killing at least 30 with dozens still missing as authorities cite night travel and overcrowding. Climate & Food: Zimbabwe braces for a “super” El Niño, with drought risks and resilience questions for food systems as grain stores and silos face uneven impacts. Governance & Tech: Bank of Ghana Governor Asiama warned public institutions not to let AI replace human judgment in spending decisions. Business & Finance: Kenya’s CMA approved a short-form prospectus allowing eligible Kenyans to join Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s IPO via GDRs. Regional Integration: EAC Speaker Oboth urged other sectors to copy the defence sector’s deeper integration model. Migration: Spanish police cleared Ceuta’s migrant camp ahead of a royal visit, moving about 3,000 people toward border processing.

Counter-Terror Ops: Nigeria’s Army, DSS and Amotekun killed an ISWAP leader, Abdussamad Ohida, in an intelligence-led strike in Owo forest, with plans tied to attacks around the Yuletide and disruption of 2027 elections. Education & Skills: In Riyadh, a Gulf-MENA education official backed science-focused teaching and teacher training tied to classroom practice, using results from the 2025 PISA study. Health Diplomacy: UN officials say China’s Global Development Initiative is shifting toward practical South-South cooperation, citing hundreds of projects and billions in financing commitments. Public Safety & Travel: A Tanzania safari flight reportedly hit a zebra on takeoff and made an emergency belly landing near Kilimanjaro; all aboard survived. Regional Integration: AU officials urged faster integration of transport, energy and digital infrastructure to strengthen African value chains and trade. Ghana Banking Shake-up: Société Générale exits Ghana, selling its stake to Attijariwafa Bank and SSNIT, opening room for local lenders. Science & AI Debate: A Ghanaian researcher warns generative music systems “tropicalize” African prompts, arguing for fairer, less Western-controlled data practices.

Defense & Tech: Morocco’s Ballistic Defense System says it has tested a GPS-independent autonomous kamikaze drone in Belgium, using onboard optical mapping and AI for precision strikes, with ethics rules requiring human mission authorization. West Africa Elections: ECOWAS plans to add youth observers to Nigeria’s 2027 election monitoring, after pilots in Côte d’Ivoire and Benin, and says it won’t leave Nigeria out. Education & Exams: WAEC appoints Suleiman Danlami Kum as Nigeria’s new Head of the National Office, replacing Amos Dangut, highlighting his exam security and tech reforms. East Africa Energy: Uganda’s Museveni backs Dangote’s Kenya refinery in principle but says Uganda won’t invest until the status of a proposed Tanga refinery in Tanzania is clarified. Nile Diplomacy: Senegal’s Faye tells Egypt it supports Nile water management via consultation and dialogue, while Egypt offers to share expertise to support Senegal’s development plans. Regional Security: Eritrea’s president visits Egypt for a collective security summit as Ethiopia and Eritrea remain locked in diplomatic escalation. Health & Industry: NAFDAC seeks international partners to set up vaccine manufacturing in Nigeria to reach WHO vaccine lot-release maturity. Business & Trade: Zimbabwe launches an export mission to Namibia to open new market links for services and FMCG. Sports: South Africa and Namibia will co-host 2027 World Cup qualifiers, with dates set to shape player availability. Wildlife & Livelihoods: Algeria’s Barbary macaque conservation push is tied to practical ways to cut crop losses and human-wildlife conflict.

East Africa Energy Push: Kenya’s Lamu coast is set for a major shift as President William Ruto and Aliko Dangote back the $16bn Dangote East Africa refinery, aimed at boosting fuel security, jobs and regional trade—though land disputes and integrity questions are already in the spotlight. Southern Africa Climate Stress: El Niño is expected to bring prolonged dry spells, raising drought risks for South Africa and southern/central Mozambique, with knock-on effects for farming and water. West Africa Elections: ECOWAS says it will add youth election observers to its Nigeria 2027 monitoring, after pilots in Côte d’Ivoire and Benin, to widen young people’s political role. Regional Trade & Mobility: Africa is moving toward more direct intra-African flights via free-route airspace to cut costs and travel times, as current direct links remain limited. Health & Humanitarian: DR Congo’s Ebola outbreak is still above 4,000 deaths, while new drug trials aim to improve outcomes. Sports Governance: CAF approved changes to interclub rules, including allowing players to represent more than one club in a season and updating squad registration limits. Historical Justice: Senegal awaits a report on the Thiaroye massacre to clarify deaths and circumstances from 1944.

Banking Expansion: NCBA Group says it is targeting Ethiopia and the DRC for its next frontier growth, planning to enter via acquisitions after Nedbank’s $850m deal structure clears key approvals. Earthquake Preparedness: Qatar Red Crescent Society hosted an IFRC workshop to strengthen MENA community communication on earthquakes, pushing practical drills and public messaging. Cocoa & Land Use: Barry Callebaut is testing Assisted Natural Regeneration in Ivory Coast, aiming to protect cocoa landscapes by combining natural regrowth with targeted planting. Housing Pressure: Ivory Coast estimates an urban housing need of 827,753 units by 2030 and has launched 420 social and economic units in Yamoussoukro under a wider emergency programme. UN Reform Push: Congo argues for UN Security Council changes, backing Africa’s demand for two permanent seats with veto power. Ebola in Congo: Congo’s Ebola response faces strain as deaths pass 4,000, with new drug trials and treatment efforts underway. Regional Security: Somalia rejects any Israeli presence “under any circumstances,” warning it could pull the country into wider Middle East crises. Education & Governance: Kenya appoints new university council members, reshuffling oversight across six institutions. Road Safety: Kenya’s Mombasa–Nairobi highway crash killed at least 17, including pilgrims.

Earthquake Preparedness in Uganda: Uganda has screened over 5,000 buildings for seismic safety in Kampala under a rapid visual assessment, with the next phase set to expand across Greater Kampala districts. Climate & Forest Restoration: Uganda’s schools are joining a tree-planting push, with Equity Bank backing 200,000 trees by 2027 to curb deforestation impacts. Ebola Response in DR Congo: Congo’s Ebola outbreak has eased in some areas, though deaths have topped 4,000; health authorities say cases are now concentrated in specific health zones. Health Research Trial: In Ituri, Congo, a trial is testing an experimental antiviral pill to prevent Ebola after exposure, enrolling more than 250 participants. Security in Nigeria: Boko Haram-linked attacks in Borno killed at least 15 farmers, with three missing, as security forces search nearby areas. EU Migration Policy: Greece is urging the EU to suspend asylum applications during mass arrivals, while EU states approved tougher return rules and “return hubs.” Kenya Mobile Money: Airtel Money signals a price war against M-Pesa in Kenya, citing lower fees and incentives as it seeks more users. Regional Energy & Trade: Kenya’s Lamu refinery project is expected to boost vessel traffic and port services as construction equipment begins arriving. Arts & Culture: Ghana’s National Symphony Orchestra dazzled audiences at the National Theatre during the 2026 Theater Festival.

Security in Nigeria: Suspected Boko Haram militants killed at least 18 villagers in Borno’s Marte area after an ambush while people collected firewood; troops launched clearance operations as others were reported missing. Health crisis in DR Congo: Ebola deaths have surpassed 4,000 with about 8,300 confirmed cases across seven provinces, as insecurity and a burned transit centre disrupt response efforts. Regional diplomacy: SADC chair Cyril Ramaphosa will lead participation at the AU mid-year coordination meeting in Egypt, focusing on continental integration and AfCFTA progress. Education governance: WAEC appointed Nigeria’s Dr Amos Dangut as Registrar/CEO for a five-year term starting October 2026, after his role leading WAEC’s Nigerian office. Economy & trade: Stanbic IBTC’s Nigeria PMI rose to 56.4 in September, signaling the strongest private-sector expansion since February 2022. Logistics deal: DP World and TGI Group expanded their Nigeria partnership, with TGI expected to become a shareholder in DP World Logistics Limited pending approvals. Food prices watch: El Niño is expected to push up costs for coffee and other foods amid existing supply-chain strains.

UN Diplomacy: China’s UN envoy urged countries to end unilateral coercive measures, saying they fuel instability and worsen food, energy and financial insecurity. Ebola Response: In DR Congo’s Ituri, violence destroyed an Ebola treatment center in a displacement camp, disrupting care and contact tracing. West Africa Security: ECOWAS called for collective action to tackle cross-border threats including violent extremism, terrorism, organised crime and humanitarian pressures. East Africa Energy: Kenya’s Ruto says the Lamu refinery will be fed by a Turkana-to-Lamu crude pipeline plus supplies from other countries, dismissing “bad blood” over regional refinery plans. Finance & Agriculture: IFC warned Nigeria’s commercial banks lend less than 5% to agriculture, a major development gap. Sports & Youth: Liberia’s U-20 were drawn into a tough WAFU-A Group A with Mali, Guinea and The Gambia. Culture & Society: Burkina Faso’s deaf dancers are using “Vibra-Signe” to translate music into vibrations and gestures, turning limited support into global recognition.