Cocoa Prices Extend Decline in Early 2026

(MENAFN) Cocoa prices have fallen more than 10% year-on-year in the first twelve days of 2026, dropping to $5,443 per ton. The decline comes as geopolitical uncertainties and favorable weather conditions raise expectations of stronger supply.

This downturn follows cocoa’s steepest annual drop on record in 2025, when prices collapsed by 48.1%. Concerns over drought in West Africa had initially driven prices upward, but improved harvest prospects later in the year weighed heavily on the market, with cocoa closing 2025 at $6,056 per ton.

Major chocolate and cocoa manufacturers had already cautioned about weaker sales last year, while the White House’s announcement of plans to eliminate cocoa tariffs added further downward pressure.

That pressure has continued into the new year, with cocoa sliding 10.3% in the opening days of January. Favorable weather across leading production regions in West Africa has contributed to the decline, as harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana are expected to increase in February and March, raising optimism among farmers about crop quality.

Despite the anticipated rise in output, demand is projected to remain sluggish. Farmers in Ivory Coast note that recent unusual rainfall could significantly boost cocoa yields, while European processing data are expected to highlight weak demand trends.

Although production forecasts are being revised upward, analysts caution that a return to previous price highs or a sustained upward trajectory is unlikely in the near future.

Commodity analyst Oran van Dort of Rabobank told Anadolu that the sharp fall in cocoa prices on Jan. 9 was driven more by technical factors than by fundamental changes, suggesting that exporters and speculators may have sold to capitalize on the price increase observed on Jan. 8.

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